Shockers battle Panthers for MVC Tournament crown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - St. Louis. MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gunning for their second straight Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship, top-seeded Northern Iowa takes on second-seeded Wichita State in the title game this afternoon at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.

UNI, which defeated Illinois State in overtime last year to capture its second MVC Tournament title, first took care of Drake in the quarterfinals on Friday with a 55-40 triumph and then yesterday dismissed fifth-seeded Bradley by almost an identical score (57-40) to advance.

As for the Shockers, a program that has two MVC crowns but hasn't won it all since 1987, they too received a bye through the opening round and then took care of Missouri State (73-63) on Friday and Illinois State (65-61) yesterday.

With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, UNI owns a 22-18 advantage, but the programs split a pair of regular-season meetings with each winning on the road.

Toure' Murry tallied a team-best 17 points, shooting 6-og-9 from the field, as he helped lead Wichita State to the win against the Redbirds on Saturday afternoon. Also hitting for double figures were Garrett Stutz and Demetric Williams with 12 points apiece, the squad shooting just 4-of-14 behind the three-point line but still managing to get by. Clevin Hannah, who tallied eight points on a mere 3-of-10 effort from the field, is the leading scorer for the Shockers to this point with his 12.1 ppg, just fractions of a point ahead of Murry (12.0 ppg) who has not only handed out 105 assists and made 49 steals, but it also one of the leaders on the glass for the group with close to five boards per outing. Defensively, WSU has held opponents to just 61.2 ppg this season.

As for the Panthers, they held their second straight opponents to a mere 40 points and limited Bradley to just 33.3 percent shooting from the floor and 1- of-10 behind the three-point line yesterday afternoon. Jordan Eglseder and Marc Sonnen both delivered 10 points for the squad in an effort to offset a 2- of-11 shooting effort by Ali Farokhmanesh as he finished with just five points. UNI escaped the meeting with just 37.9 percent shooting from the floor. Adam Koch, who responded with seven points yesterday, is tied with Eglseder atop the overall scoring list this season with 12.1 ppg. Eglseder is good for almost seven and a half rebounds per game, yet it is still difficult to get beyond the fact that he has just 18 assists in his 28 starts. Not much of an offensive team this year with an average of only 63.2 ppg, the Panthers are getting the job done by holding foes to a mere 54.4 ppg, representing one of the top efforts in the nation.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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