Division leaders square off in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds hold a half-game edge on the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central after taking two of three games from Milwaukee in a series that ended with a 10-2 Reds win on Wednesday.

The Braves, meanwhile, are 2 1/2 games up on the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has cut into the lead with an eight-game win streak while the Braves have dropped four of six, including a series finale to Washington Thursday.

Cincinnati sends emerging ace Johnny Cueto to the mound in the opener in search of fifth straight win and with a chance to equal his career high in victories. The third-year Dominican export improved to 10-2 on the season with eight innings of scoreless four-hit ball in a 7-0 defeat of Houston on July 24.

The triumph lowered his earned run average to 3.18 and marked his sixth straight unbeaten start since a 1-0 loss at Seattle on June 18. His opposition batting average this season - .247 - is 12 points below his career clip and 15 points better than the .262 average he allowed last season.

For the Braves, right-hander Kris Medlen makes his second straight start after a trip to the bullpen and seeks his first win since July 7. A 24-year-old Californian, Medlen tossed six innings and allowed five runs on eight hits while getting a no-decision in Atlanta's 10-5 win at Florida on July 24.

It was his first game-opening assignment after four straight trips from the bullpen, during which he allowed six hits and four runs across five innings between July 11 and 21.

The former 10th round draft pick - 2006 - is 4-1 in 15 road games this season with a 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.

He has never faced the Reds.

On Thursday, Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn each homered, as the Nationals edged the Braves, 5-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Derek Lowe (10-9) took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in five innings. Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer for the Braves.

On Wednesday, Brandon Phillips hit his fourth career grand slam while Joey Votto went 3-for-5 with a home run, powering the Reds to a 10-2 victory over Milwaukee.

Phillips, who had two hits, slugged his first grand slam since 2007. Miguel Cairo went 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI for the Reds, who went 4-2 on their road trip.

Cincinnati scored its runs in bursts, plating five in the sixth and eighth innings. Rookie Travis Wood (1-1) benefited from the first surge, getting his first major league win after allowing two runs in five innings. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out six.

Atlanta swept a two-game set from the Reds earlier in the year after the Reds won six of the nine matchups in 2009.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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